Antares Failure: Damage Not Too Bad, Identifying Likely Cause Days Not Weeks Away

Orbital Sciences Corporation said today that an initial survey of the Antares launch pad and surrounding areas at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility, VA shows that the damage is not as bad as initially feared.  Also today, Orbital’s President said it should be days, not weeks, before investigators can identify a “handful” of likely causes though finding the root cause will take longer.

Orbital’s Antares rocket with a Cygnus spacecraft full of more than 5,000 pounds of experiments, equipment and supplies for the International Space Station (ISS) failed seconds after liftoff from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) at Wallops last night.   No one was injured.

David Thompson, Orbital’s Chairman, President, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and one of the company’s founders, held a telephone conference call with investors and financial analysts to discuss the failure this afternoon.  The company’s stock was down almost 17 percent.  Orbital is in the midst of a merger with ATK.  When asked if he was considering a delay in the shareholder vote with regard to the merger, Thompson said it is too early to tell.

“Too early to tell” was an oft-repeated theme throughout the teleconference as Thompson and Orbital Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer Garrett Pierce provided what information they could about the failure and attempts to ascertain its cause.  Thompson said he thought it would take only days, not weeks, to narrow the list of potential causes to a few, although it would take longer to determine the root cause. Based on past experience, he anticipates that the next Antares launch, currently scheduled for April, will be delayed.  “I think a reasonable best-case estimate would bound that at three months but it could certainly be considerably longer than that depending on what we find in the review. I would hope it would be not more than a year,” he said.

Although Thompson cautioned that first impressions are not always the correct ones in accidents like this, there is a widespread assumption that the rocket’s first stage engines were at least part of the cause considering how early in the launch the failure occurred.   Antares is powered by two NK33 engines built by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and imported to the United States for refurbishment by Aerojet and redesignated AJ26.  Orbital has been considering replacing the AJ26s with a different engine in about two years because they “have presented us with some serious technical and supply challenges in the past,” he said, adding that the accident may accelerate those plans:  “I certainly think we can shorten that interval, but at this point I don’t know by how much.”  The company has not revealed what alternative engine it has selected.

Thompson said the launch complex “was spared from any major damage” and the Antares assembly building and Cygnus spacecraft processing facilities “were not affected … in any way.”  The company issued a press statement later in the day reaffirming that based on an aerial survey and an on-site preliminary visit, serious damage was avoided, but the full extent of repairs or how long they will take will not be known until a more detailed inspection is conducted.  

NASA posted an aerial view of the damaged area on its website.  NASA Wallops Director Bill Wrobel expressed confidence that “we will rebound stronger than ever.”  NASA said there was damage at the MARS facility to the transporter erector launcher and lightning suppression rods.  A sounding rocket launcher adjacent to the pad and buildings nearest the pad suffered the greatest damage, NASA said, and support buildings have broken windows and imploded doors.  Environmental damage appears to be contained within the southern third of Wallops Island.  No hazardous substances were detected in air samples at the Wallops mainland area, the Highway 175 causeway, or nearby Chincoteague Island.  The Coast Guard and Virginia Marine Resources Commission have not observed any obvious signs of water pollution.  Anyone who finds debris is warned not to touch it and to call 757-824-1295.

Aerial view of damaged Antares launch site at Wallops Flight Facility, VA, October 29, 2014.  Photo Credit: NASA/Terry Zaperach

Thompson and Pierce said insurance would cover the cost of launch site repairs to its facilities as well as the loss of near-term receivables that the company would have collected if the launch had been a success.  The company still plans to submit a bid for NASA’s follow-on Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) 2 contract.  Yesterday’s launch was part of the original CRS contract under which Orbital was awarded a $1.9 billion contract to deliver 20 tons of cargo to the ISS by 2016.

An Accident Investigation Board (AIB) led by Orbital and including NASA and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and overseen by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will determine the cause of the accident and recommend corrective actions.  Orbital’s Dave Steffy, Senior Vice President and Chief Engineer of the Advanced Programs Group, is chairing the AIB.

The loss of the spacecraft is not expected to affect ISS operations.  None of the cargo on this third operational Orbital mission to the ISS, Orb-3, was critical and a Russian Progress cargo spacecraft docked with the ISS this morning on a regularly scheduled flight bringing fuel, water, air, oxygen, food and other supplies.

Note:  the membership of the AIB has been corrected.  An earlier version of this article listed MARS as a member, but although its representatives are involved in assessing damage to the launch site, it is not listed as having a member of the board in Orbital’s October 29 press release.  Also, our original article did not mention that the FAA is providing oversight of the investigation process.