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Elon Musk: Lipstick or a Colony on Mars?

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 24-Oct-2014 (Updated: 24-Oct-2014 11:10 PM)

In a wide-ranging “one-on-one” interview today at MIT, Elon Musk easily transitioned from technical to philosophical discussions about rockets, Mars exploration, Tesla cars, and hyperloops.  From asking rhetorically whether buying lipstick is more important than colonizing Mars, to insisting that bringing Mars resources back to Earth is unrealistic even if it was cocaine, it was an entertaining exchange.

Musk’s interview by MIT aeronautics and astronautics department head Jaime Perarie was part of the department’s three-day centennial celebration that featured lectures and panel discussions by illustrious aerospace professionals, including many astronauts and MIT professor Dava Newman, recently nominated to be NASA Deputy Administrator.

Musk’s hour-and-a-half long session was split roughly 50-50 between questions from Perarie and from audience members, many of them students.  He made many quotable comments, including the fact that SpaceX will try to land a Falcon 9 first stage on a floating platform as soon as the next flight, but at least sometime in the next 12 months, with the goal of reflying that stage as a demonstration of reusability.

Among the highlights of the space-related portions of the session are the following:

Reusability

  • SpaceX plans to land a Falcon 9 first stage on a floating platform within the next 12 months, perhaps on the next flight.   Musk said they have soft-landed the Falcon 9 first stage in the ocean twice: “it sat there for several seconds, tipped over and exploded.”  The next step is to land it on a floating platform being built in Louisiana.   SpaceX may attempt it on the next Falcon 9 launch to the International Space Station (ISS) – currently scheduled for December 9 – but Musk said there was at best a 50 percent chance of success.  Nonetheless, he added, there are 12 more Falcon 9 flights in the next 12 months and he thinks there’s an 80-90 percent chance of success over that period of time and that first stage will refly.  “We’re close” to demonstrating reusability, he said.
  • He has no plans for reusing the Falcon 9 second stage, however.  For full reusability, he is focusing on next generation vehicles using liquid methane and oxygen – his Raptor design – which will be reusable all the way to Mars.  He expects test flights of such a system in 5-6 years.

Propulsive Landing

  • The penalty for propulsive landing is low, he said.  One can use less mass if a parachute or water landing is employed, but that negatively impacts reusability.   The key is propulsive landing with precision.   That is needed to land on the Moon or Mars, too.
  • In a more humorous moment, he commented that in science fiction aliens land on Earth propulsively, not by splashing down in the ocean or with parachutes.  “Would be weird to see them landing in the ocean,” he remarked with a smile.

Why SpaceX?

  • Asked if it was true that he created SpaceX because he, himself, wants to fly in space, Musk said no, if that was all he wanted he could buy a ticket on Russia’s Soyuz as others have done.  He said that before he started SpaceX he wanted to send a small greenhouse to Mars to get people excited about sending people to Mars in an effort to increase NASA’s budget.  But he concluded what was really needed was better rockets so it was not a matter of sending people to Mars once and never doing it again.  His goal is to advance rocket technology to send many people to Mars so a self-sustaining colony can be established.

Why Colonize Mars?

  • People focus on the problems here on Earth, he said, but some small amount of money – less than one percent of our resources -- should be spent on establishing colonies on Mars and making humanity a multi-planet species.   It’s a matter of priorities, he continued.  It is less important than health care, for example, but more important than cosmetics.  “I’m in favor of cosmetics … but lipstick or a colony on Mars?” he asked with a grin, followed by laughter from the audience.

International Cooperation or Competition?

  • Asked if colonies on Mars will be international or American, Musk said he hopes there will be many colonies on Mars.   He favors competition, not cooperation.  If governments all must work “in lockstep” as they do with the International Space Station, he said, “things do not go fast.”  Instead, he favors “positive” competition like in the Olympics where people compete “hard” but the net result is good.

Space Resources Will be Used in Space Not on Earth

  • Musk made clear that he thinks that space resources will be used in space, not brought back to Earth.  “Even if you had crack cocaine in pre-packaged pallets” on Mars, it would not make sense to bring it back to Earth, he said.

One Way Trips to Mars

  • Musk humorously asked if that meant “one way and you die” or “one way and you’re resupplied,” but more seriously commented that spaceships are expensive and they must be returned to Earth regardless of whether the people want to come back.
  • As for MarsOne’s concept of using SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rockets, Musk said that if they want to buy them, he will sell them, but he doesn’t think they have the money for even one and, in any case, the Dragon, with an interior volume of an SUV, is not large enough to accommodate people for such long trips.  He recommends waiting for next generation technology.

NASA

  • “I’m a huge fan of NASA,” Musk said.  He is impressed with what the agency is doing in human spaceflight today considering all the constraints it must work under.  If NASA continues to expand on its support of competitive commercial space, that will have the most positive impact on the future of space development, in his view.
  • Asked what would happen to his plans if NASA reached Mars using its Space Launch System (SLS) before SpaceX gets there, Musk said that would be great, but as far as he knows, he is the only one trying to develop systems to send lots of people to Mars to establish a colony there.  He is focused on developing better rocket technology.   It would be “cool” to send one mission to Mars, but what will change humanity is sending large numbers of people.  “I don’t see anyone” out there other than SpaceX trying to do that; “not to say we’ll be successful, but I don’t see anyone else trying.”

Other topics included space elevators (he’s skeptical, but happy to be proved wrong), artificial intelligence (which he referred to as “summoning a demon”), hyperloop systems (he offered technical advice to a student who tried to build one as a senior project), and his Tesla cars.  The entire session is available on MIT’s website.

China Launches Lunar Sample Return Test - UPDATE

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 23-Oct-2014 (Updated: 24-Oct-2014 12:16 AM)

UPDATE:  This article is updated throughout. 

China's Xinhua news service confirmed that a spacecraft to test technologies for returning a lunar sample to Earth was launched this afternoon, October 23 Eastern Daylight Time (Friday, October 24, local time in China).

Xinhua tweeted (@XHNews) at approximately 2:00 pm EDT: "#BREAKING  China launches an experimental return spacecraft that will orbit the moon and return to Earth."

Approximately one hour later, Xinhua issued another tweet that the spacecraft had entered the expected orbit and provided a photo of the launch.

Launch of lunar sample return test spacecraft as precursor to Chang'e-5, October 24, 2014 local time in China (October 23 Eastern Daylight Time).
Photo credit:  Xinhua

Chinese English language news sources have reported on the upcoming launch for quite some time, but provided few details.  Unofficial Chinese space program analysts and the amateur radio community have provided more information.  An amateur radio payload, 4M-LXS, built by LuxSpace, is included on the spacecraft.  AMSAT-UK reports that the first telemetry from the JT65B beacon on the satellite was received in Brazil at 19:18 GMT (3:18 pm EDT).  It is encouraging radio amateurs to receive and report on the signals.

The launch took place from China's Xichang Satellite Launch Center using a Long March 3C rocket.  Jonathan McDowell of Jonathan's Space Report tweeted (@planet4589) late on Thursday EDT that the launch had taken place at 18:00 GMT (2:00 pm October 23 EDT, or 2:00 am October 24 Beijing time) into a 209 x 413000 kilometer circumlunar trajectory.

This mission is a precursor to the Chang'e-5 spacecraft scheduled for launch in 2017.  This precursor mission is expected to last 196 hours and return to land on Earth.  Xinhua revealed shortly after launch that the intended landing site is in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

China has not provided an official designation for the mission.  Even the news items issued by Xinhua in the hours after the launch do not refer to the spacecraft by name, saying only that it is a precursor to Chang'e-5.   Some analysts of the Chinese space program refer to it as Chang'e-5-T1, but the origin of that designation is unclear.  McDowell reports in his Stop Press edition that the name is "Chang'e wu hao feixing shiyan qi" or CE-5 Flight Test Device.

China Readies Lunar Sample Return Test Flight With Amateur Radio Passenger

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 22-Oct-2014 (Updated: 22-Oct-2014 11:16 AM)

China will launch a robotic spacecraft to fly around the Moon and return to Earth as early as tomorrow as a test related to its goal of returning a lunar sample later in the decade.  China's Xinhua news service reports today that the launch will take place between Friday and Sunday.  The spacecraft will carry an amateur radio payload and AMSAT-UK says the launch is scheduled for tomorrow, Thursday, October 23, at 18:00 GMT, which is 2:00 am Friday, October 24, local time in China.  (Or 2:00 pm Thursday Eastern Daylight Time).

China has indicated for quite some time that it plans to launch this test mission, but has provided few details, including its name.  Most of the public information comes from the amateur radio community, especially the AMSAT-UK website.  The 14-kilogram battery-powered amateur radio payload is built by LuxSpace, a Luxembourg company that is part of OHB.  The payload, 4M-LXS, honors the late Manfred Luchs, OHB's founder, where "4M" refers to Manfred Memorial Moon Mission.  AMSAT-UK reports that the entire mission is expected to last 196 hours.  

The spacecraft was delivered to the Xichang launch site in August.  The planned landing site has not been specified.   Xinhua said today only that the mission involves "entering, exiting, and re-entering the Earth's atmosphere and landing on the Earth" and demonstrating the spacecraft can be slowed "so it can land safely at a predetermined location."  China has not attempted atmospheric reentry as such speeds before.

China's lunar probes to date have been named Chang'e after China's mythological goddess of the Moon.  Chang'e-1 (2007) and Chang'e-2 (2010) were lunar orbiters (and Chang'e-2 was later redirected to fly past the asteroid Toutatis, which it did successfully in 2012).  Chang'e-3 landed on the Moon last year and delivered the Yutu (Jade Rabbit) rover, which was only a partial success.  

Since China has not officially announced the name of this upcoming test mission, it is referred to variously by observers of the Chinese space program.  Perhaps "Chang'e-5 precursor" is the best designation for now.  Chang'e-5 itself is scheduled for launch in 2017 from China's new Wenchang Satellite Launch Center on Hainan Island.  (Chang'e-4 was originally described as a back-up for Chang'e-3, but more recent Chinese media reports have said it would be adapted to verify technologies for Chang'e-5.  An August 2014 CCTV report said Chang'e-4 would be launched in 2015, however, so apparently that is not the name of this upcoming test mission.)

China's New Wenchang Space Launch Site Ready for Action

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 20-Oct-2014 (Updated: 21-Oct-2014 10:03 AM)

Construction of China's new launch site on Hainan Island is complete according to a report in the Chinese media.  The Wenchang Satellite Launch Center is the country's fourth space launch site and the first that is not inland.  It also is the furthest south, improving China's ability to launch satellites into geostationary orbit.

China currently launches satellites from Jiuquan in the Gobi desert (human space missions, lunar spacecraft, mid-high inclination orbit satellites), Xichang in Sichuan province (primarily geostationary satellites), and Taiyuan, just south of Beijing (polar-orbiting satellites). 

Wenchang is on the northeast coast of Hainan Island and only 19 degrees north of the equator (currently Xichang is the furthest south, at 28 degrees north).  China plans to use it for its new Long March 5 rocket, still under development, that will be able to launch about 25 metric tons to low Earth orbit, in the same class as the U.S. Delta IV.

China Daily says Wenchang and Long March 5 will be used to launch spacecraft not only into Earth orbit, but to lunar and interplanetary destinations.  The first launch from Wenchang is expected next year.

Among the science missions planned for Long March 5 from Wenchang is a lunar sample return mission, Chang'e-5, planned for 2017.   An engineering test for that mission reportedly is scheduled for launch this week.   (Chang'e-3 was launched last year and deposited the Yutu rover on the Moon.  Chang'e-1 and Chang'e-2 were lunar orbiters.  Chang'e is China's mythological goddess of the Moon.)

Note:  The original version of this article referred to the engineering test for Chang'e-5 that may be launched this week as Chang'e-4 and provided other information.  However, the name is reported differently in various sources (Bob Christy's zarya.info site calls it "Chang'e Lunar Sample Container Test Flight").  The name and other details of that mission are incidental to this article, which is about the Wenchang launch site, so we have simply omitted it in this update.

What's Happening in Space Policy October 20-24, 2014

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 19-Oct-2014 (Updated: 19-Oct-2014 04:42 PM)

Here is our list of space policy-related events in the coming week, October 20-24, 2014, and any insights we can offer about them.  Congress returns on November 12.

During the Week

The U.S. Court of Federal Claims has scheduled a second hearing on Sierra Nevada Corporation's (SNC's) lawsuit against the government vis a vis the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCAP) contracts for Tuesday at 2:30 pm ET (it's not listed on our calendar because we don't list court dates for lawsuits since they are rarely open to the public).  The first hearing was on Friday, where the court allowed SpaceX and Boeing to intervene in the case.  The court is also considering SNC's request to keep most of the filings under seal because some of the material may be proprietary and some is protected under SNC's protest to the Government Accountability Office (GAO).  SNC is protesting NASA's award of the CCtCAP contracts to Boeing and SpaceX.  Ordinarily, under the Competition in Contracting Act (CICA), work would stop under those contracts until GAO rules on SNC's protest (it has until January 5, 2015).  NASA did issue a stop-work order, but later rescinded it based on its statutory authority to avoid significant adverse consequences.  SNC is challenging the legality of that rescission.  Check back with SpacePolicyOnline.com to learn about what happens on Tuesday.

There are many other interesting events on tap during the week as well.   On Monday, the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs (which administers the UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space), the Mexican Space Agency and another Mexican organization, CICESE, will hold a symposium on Making Space Technology Accessible and Affordable.  The opening ceremony and a press conference -- including the head of the Mexican Space Agency, Javier Mendieta -- will be webcast. 

The third of three International Space Station (ISS) spacewalks in as many weeks is scheduled for Wednesday.  This time it is two Russians, Max Suraev and Alexander Samokutyaev, who will step outside.   NASA TV will cover it beginning at 9:00 am ET.

Two very interesting luncheons are being held in the Washington, DC area on Thursday, unfortunately at exactly the same time.  The Washington Space Business Roundtable is hosting a panel of experts on the future of satellite communications in support of DOD at the University Club is downtown DC, while the National Capital Section of the American Institute of Aeronautics is hearing from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Chris Scolese across the river in Arlington, VA.   Not to mention that there's an all-day symposium in DC that day on space and satellite regulatory issues.  Busy day!

Those and other events we know about as of Sunday afternoon are listed below.

Monday, October 20

Wednesday, October 22

Wednesday-Sunday, October 22-26

Thursday, October 23

How To Keep Up With Comet Siding Spring's Encounter with Mars Tomorrow

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 18-Oct-2014 (Updated: 19-Oct-2014 03:01 PM)

Comet Siding Spring will make a close pass of the planet Mars tomorrow (Sunday, October 19) while human and robotic observers watch intently to see what they can learn about this rather rare type of celestial body.  On Earth, the best viewing is from the Southern Hemisphere and it will not be visible to the naked eye (Magnitude 13), but several websites plan live coverage with images and/or commentary.

Astronomers world-wide have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of Comet Siding Spring, also known as C/2013 A1, which was discovered in January 2013 by Robert McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in Australia.   This particular type of comet, from the Oort Cloud far beyond the orbit of Pluto, rarely reaches the inner solar system.  This is the comet's first time sweeping around the Sun so none of its material has yet been affected by the Sun's heat.  It is comprised of material from the time the solar system was formed 4.6 billion years ago.

The nucleus of the comet will come within 87,000 miles (140,000 kilometers) of the surface of Mars at 2:28 pm Eastern Daylight Time (11:28 am PDT, 18:28 GMT).   It will pass Mars traveling at 126,000 miles per hour (56 kilometers per second). 

Five spacecraft are currently orbiting Mars:  three from NASA and one each from the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO).  In addition, two functioning NASA rovers are on the surface:  Opportunity and Curiosity.  All will be tasked to study the comet and its interaction with Mars. 

To be on the safe side, NASA positioned its orbiters -- Mars Odyssey, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and MAVEN -- so they will be on the opposite side of the planet as the comet's tail passes by lest any of the particles damage spacecraft instruments.   ISRO similarly repositioned its Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM).  The European Space Agency decided that the risk of damage to its Mars Express orbiter was so low that it did not change its orbit.   The tail will be in close proximity to Mars about 90 minutes after the nucleus goes by and will be there for only about 20 minutes.

Many other space- and Earth-based observatories will study the comet as well.   NASA has a website with a wealth of information about its plans.

Comet expert Karl Battams posted an analysis of the parallels between observing this comet and last year's comet ISON, which was a disappointment for many observers because the comet was not as spectacular as expected.  Today Battams said in his blog post that the same phenomenon has occurred with Comet Siding Spring:  "...again, like comet ISON - we have watched nervously in these final couple of weeks ... as the comet has suddenly and dramatically faded in brightness.  This in particular has left us scratching our collective heads...."   Still, although "we have plenty of unknowns," he is optimistic for a successful Mars-based observing campaign.

He (@SungrazerComets) and the Planetary Society's Emily Lakdawalla (@elakdawalla) are among those who will be tweeting the event (#MarsComet or #SidingSpring).  Both list places on the web that will have live images and/or commentary:

  • Virtual Telescope beginning at 16:45 GMT (12:45 pm EDT)
  • ESA beginning at 1:50 pm EDT
  • Slooh beginning at 2:15 pm EDT
  • amateur astronomer Peter Lake will broadcast from the iTelescope.net Observatory at Siding Spring

Galileo Operators Take Possession of Wayward EU Navsats

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 16-Oct-2014 (Updated: 16-Oct-2014 09:09 AM)

The good news is that the two European Union (EU) Galileo navigation satellites launched in August are in "excellent health and working normally."  The not so good news is that they are in the wrong orbit.  What they will be used for is an open question.

The European Space Agency (ESA), which serves as the design and procurement agent for the satellites, announced today that the pair of satellites were handed over from ESA's Space Operations Center (ESOC) in Darmstadt, Germany to the Galileo Control Center in Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany in late September. 

Galileo is Europe's version of the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS) for providing positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) data.  The EU and ESA shared Galileo development costs, but the EU is shouldering the full cost of the operational system.

These two satellites, the first of 30 that will comprise Galileo's Fully Operational Capability (FOC), were launched by Arianespace from Kourou, French Guiana, using Russia's Soyuz rocket and Fregat upper stage on August 22, 2014

Initially, the launch was thought to have been a complete success, but ESOC soon determined that the satellites were not in their correct orbital locations.  Further analysis showed the satellites were in an orbit with an apogee that is too high, perigee that is too low, and at the wrong inclination.  Ultimately it was determined that the Fregat upper stage had malfunctioned

In addition, one solar panel on each OHB-built satellite had not deployed.  Controllers were able to point the satellites so the solar array release mechanisms could be warmed by the Sun and that did the trick.  Thus they are fully functional now, but what use they will be in that orbit is unclear.  They do not have sufficient on-board fuel to reach their correct orbit.  The ESA announcement said the Galileo Control Center will "care for them pending a final decision on their use."

Air Force X-37B Due to Land Tuesday, SWF Wants More Transparency About Its Missions

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 13-Oct-2014 (Updated: 15-Oct-2014 05:28 PM)

NOTE:  As of 5:00 pm EDT October 15, the Air Force has not made any announcement that the X-37B landed.  The original announcement that it was returning to Earth said the exact landing date and time were dependent on technical and weather considerations.  Unofficial observers monitoring FAA's NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen) and using amateur observations of its orbit can offer possible landing times, but they are subject to uncertainty. Reuters reporter Irene Klotz (@Free_Space) tweeted today that the landing "now looks like no earlier than Thursday, FAA pilot advisory indicates."  Bob Christy at zarya.info calculates there is a landing opportunity that day (tomorrow) about 16:25 GMT (12:25 EDT).  This article has been updated to reflect the delay from the anticipated landing date of October 14.

UPDATED, October 15, 2014:  The Air Force announced on Friday (October 10) that its secretive X-37B spaceplane, in orbit for almost two years, will soon return to Earth and land at Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA.  At the recent International Astronautical Congress (IAC2014) in Toronto, Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation encouraged the U.S. government to be more open about what the X-37 is doing as part of the Transparency and Confidence Building Measures (TCBMs) the United States is advocating to help ensure space sustainability.

Officially called the X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV), the vehicle resembles a very small space shuttle.   The Air Force launches the robotic spacecraft for lengthy on-orbit classified missions.  This flight is the longest to date.  Launched on December 11, 2012, its mission duration will be more than 667 days.  There are at least two OTVs.  The first, OTV-1, made a 224 day flight in 2010.  The second, OTV-2, made a 469 day flight from March 2011 to June 2012.  The OTVs are reusable and this is the second flight for OTV-1.

Photo of X-37B OTV-1.  Photo credit: Boeing (via Spaceflightnow.com)

The Air Force statement said the exact time of the landing "will depend on technical and weather considerations."  Initial indications were that landing was targeted for October 14, but that day passed with no announcement from the Air Force.  Unofficial observers are estimating potential landing times based on the FAA's NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen) and amateur observations of the X-37's orbit, but they are subject to uncertainty.  Check back here for updated information when it is available.

The classified nature of the missions prompts much speculation about what they are doing.   In an era when the United States and other countries are advocating for establishing TCBMs to help ensure space sustainability, some question why the missions are kept secret.   In an October 1 session at IAC2014 on "Assuring a Safe, Secure and Sustainable Space Environment for Space Activities," the Secure World Foundation's (SWF's) Samson cited the X-37B's secrecy as at odds with TCBMs.  TCBMs are norms of behavior that "nations that mean no harm" should follow, she said, including a willingness to share information about technical capabilities in order to avoid misperceptions.  She remarked that the U.S. "refusal to explain what the X-37B is [doing] has led a lot of people to assume the worst, and probably wrongfully so." 

A 2010 SWF analysis concluded it "has near zero feasibility as an orbital weapons system for attacking targets on the ground" and has "limited capability for orbital inspection, repair and retrieval," although speculation often centers on exactly such missions.  SWF concluded its most likely purpose is "flight testing new reusable space launch vehicle (SLV) technologies ... and on-orbit testing of new sensor technologies and satellite hardware primarily for space-based remote sensing."

The OTVs are launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, FL, adjacent to NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC). NASA and the Air Force announced last week that the Air Force will use two of KSC's Orbiter Processing Facilities (OPFs) to process the X-37B in the future.  To date the OTVs have landed across the country at Vandenberg, but the NASA-Air Force announcement also said that tests were conducted to demonstrate the X-37B could land at KSC's Shuttle Landing Facility.   The landing facility and the OPFs are left over from NASA's space shuttle program, which was terminated in 2011.

The X-37, built by Boeing, initially was a NASA test vehicle designed to lead to an Orbital Space Plane that could serve as a Crew Return Vehicle to bring International Space Station astronauts back to Earth in an emergency and, eventually, as a taxi to take them to the ISS as well.  NASA terminated that program in 2004 after President George W. Bush reoriented the human spaceflight program toward returning astronauts to the Moon instead of ISS utilization.  The X-37 program then was transferred to the Department of Defense.

What's Happening In Space Policy October 13-17, 2014

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 12-Oct-2014 (Updated: 12-Oct-2014 01:34 PM)

Here is our list of space policy-related events for the week of October 13-17, 2014 and any insight we can offer about them.  Congress is in recess until November 12.

During the Week

The event likely to attract the most attention this week is the International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight (ISPCS).  The speaker line-up is an intriguing array of "traditional space" and "new space" luminaries, although the description of Bill Gerstenmaier's talk may say it best:  "Never before have the titles of 'old space' and 'new space' been as trivial as they are today." 

Just to illustrate the breadth of speakers (sorry we can't list everyone -- the program is here), in addition to Gerstenmaier (NASA's Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations), speakers include Clay Mowry (Arianespace), George Sowers (United Launch Alliance), George Whitesides (Virgin Galactic), Stuart Will (Mojave Air and Space Port), Barry Matsumori (SpaceX), Brett Alexander (Blue Origin), Doug Loverro (DOD Deputy Assistant Secretary for Space Policy), John Shannon (Boeing), Mark Sirangelo (Sierra Nevada Space Systems), Doug Young (Northrop Grumman) and Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM). 

Most unfortunately, if you can't be there in person, you're out of luck.  The conference's media contact says none of the sessions will be webcast live, though "a few of the keynotes" may be posted online in a month or two.

That and other events we know about as of this afternoon (Sunday) are listed below.

Tuesday, October 14

Wednesday, October 15

  • ISS Spacewalk (2 NASA astronauts), begins approximately 8:10 am ET (NASA TV coverage begins at 7:00 am ET)

Wednesday-Thursday, October 15-16

Wednesday-Friday, October 15-17

Friday-Tuesday, October 17-21

Arianespace Announces Cause of Galileo Launch Anomaly

Marcia S. Smith
Posted: 08-Oct-2014 (Updated: 08-Oct-2014 09:34 AM)

Arianespace released the results of an investigation into why two European Union (EU) Galileo navigation satellites were left in the wrong orbit following a launch using Russia's Soyuz rocket with Fregat upper stage.  The root cause was a "shortcoming" in the system thermal analysis of the Fregat design that led to freezing of the hydrazine fuel.

The conclusion was reached by an Independent Inquiry Board established by Arianespace after the August 22, 2014 anomaly.  The two Galileo satellites, intended to be the first of the Full Operational System, were stranded in an orbit that renders them unable to perform their primary mission.  The inquiry Board was led by Peter Dubock, former Inspector General of the European Space Agency (ESA).  The EU is funding the Galileo navigation satellite system, which is similar to the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS).  ESA is the EU's design and procurement agent for Galileo.  The EU plans to have 30 operational Galileo satellites in orbit by the end of the decade.

Arianespace launches Russia's Soyuz rocket from its launch site in Kourou, French Guiana, through a partnership with Russia's space agency, Roscosmos, and two Russian manufacturers -- RKTs-Progress, which builds Soyuz, and NPO Lavochkin, which builds the Fregat upper stage.  

At first, the August 22 launch seemed to go fine, but the satellites were later discovered in the wrong orbit.  The Arianespace inquiry drew on data supplied by its Russian partners and its findings "are consistent with" a separate board of inquiry appointed by Roscosmos.

The Soyuz rocket was exonerated and found to have performed as planned.   The problem was in the Fregat upper stage because the hydrazine fuel froze and blocked the fuel supply to the Fregat's thrusters.  The fuel froze because the hydrazine and cold helium feed lines were connected by the same support structure, creating a thermal bridge.  The root cause was found to be "ambiguities" in the design documentation as the result of poor system thermal analysis in the design phase. 

Arianespace concluded that the issue is easy for Lavochkin to resolve and launches could resume as early as December 2014.  The company also noted that this failure followed 45 consecutive successful uses of the Fregat.