SpaceX founder, CEO and lead designer Elon Musk said tonight that he expects preliminary conclusions about the cause of the June 28 Falcon 9 failure by the end of the week.
SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket failed 139 seconds into flight last Sunday, carrying a Dragon spacecraft full of supplies for the International Space Station (ISS). It was the company's seventh operational Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) mission under contract to NASA -- SpaceX CRS-7 or SpX-7. The first six, and an initial demonstration flight, were all successful.
Musk tweeted this evening that he expects preliminary conclusions by the end of the week.
The failure came after 18 consecutive Falcon 9 mission successes.
That would be about two weeks to determine the cause and inform customers and the FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST), which facilitates and regulates the commercial space launch industry. Sunday's launch was authorized pursuant to FAA's regulations. Under those provisions, the company leads the failure investigation with oversight by FAA.
SpaceX has a long list of government and commercial customers who are awaiting word on the launch schedule impact of the failure.
SpaceX finally won certification from the Air Force in May to compete for national security launches after a lengthy process. How this failure will affect its competitiveness with the United Launch Alliance (ULA), which has been the monopoly provider of those services since 2006, or SpaceX's ongoing effort to develop a crew version of its Dragon capsule as part of NASA's commercial crew program, is yet to be seen. It may depend in large measure on how long it takes to rectify the problem and restore confidence in the Falcon 9 rocket.
NASA's New Horizons spacecraft that is just days away from its closest approach to Pluto is expected to resume normal operations on July 7 after an anomaly yesterday. The spacecraft has been enroute to Pluto since January 2006 and will get its best view of the dwarf planet as it flies past on July 14.
NASA Planetary Science Division Director Jim Green said in a statement posted on the New Horizons website this evening (Eastern Daylight Time--EDT) that "we're on the verge of returning to normal operations and going for the gold."
Mission managers announced yesterday (July 4) that the probe had stopped communicating with Earth at 1:34 pm EDT and although communications were restored at 3:15 pm EDT, it was with the probe's backup computer. Under those circumstances systems data could be transmitted back to Earth to help diagnose the problem, but planned science observations could not be undertaken.
The spacecraft is 3 billion miles (4.9 billion kilometers) from Earth and it takes 9 hours for radio signals to make the two-way trip.
Tonight's statement provided few details, saying that it was not a hardware or software error, but a "hard to detect timing flaw in the spacecraft command sequence that occurred during an operation to prepare" for the July 14 flyby. No similar events are planned for the remainder of the journey to Pluto.
The lost science observations during this period are not considered significant by the mission's principal investigator, Alan Stern of the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI). He said the loss of the data will not "change an A-plus even into an A."
Here is our list of space policy related events for the week of July 6-10, 2015 and any insight we can offer about them. The House and Senate are in session this week (starting on Tuesday).
During the Week
NASA's New Horizons mission to Pluto went into safe mode yesterday, just 10 days away from its closest encounter with Pluto after a nearly 10 year journey. Keeping up to date on efforts to remedy that situation and on SpaceX's progress in determining the cause of its Falcon 9 failure on June 28 certainly will be key topics to follow this week.
The SpaceX Falcon 9 was taking supplies to the International Space Station (ISS) crew and the good news is that a Russian Progress cargo spacecraft safely docked very early this morning Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). Still, ensuring effective operations on ISS to achieve the scientific research that is its raison d'être is a hot topic that will be addressed at a major conference in Boston and on Capitol Hill this week.
From Tuesday-Thursday, the American Astronautical Society (AAS) will hold its fourth annual conference on ISS R&D in collaboration with NASA and the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS). This year's conference is in Boston. (A pre-conference user workshop featuring NASA astronaut Cady Coleman and an opening reception will be held tomorrow).
The morning sessions each day will be webcast. Of the conference's many sessions, those likely of most interest to the policy community that will be webcast are the following:
On Friday, action shifts to Washington where the Space Subcommittee of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee will hold a hearing at 9:00 am ET on "International Space Station: Addressing Operational Challenges." Witnesses include Gerstenmaier, Boeing's John Elbon, NASA Inspector General Paul Martin, and GAO's Shelby Oakley.
Those and other events we know about as of Sunday morning are listed below.
Tuesday-Thursday, July 7-9 (with pre-conference activities on Monday, July 6)
Friday, July 10
Russia's Progress M-28M robotic cargo spacecraft docked with the International Space Station at 3:11 am Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) this morning (July 5), a little over two days after it was launched early Friday morning EDT.
The cargo vehicle, called Progress 60 or 60P by NASA, is delivering 1,940 pounds of propellant, 106 pounds of water, 106 pounds of oxygen, and 3,133 pounds of food, parts, supplies and experimental hardware.
NASA calls it 60P because it is the 60th Progress mission launched to support ISS, an indication of how often these spacecraft take supplies to the ISS crew. They are so routine that they often get little notice, but the previous Russian flight, Progress M-27M, failed. Two U.S. cargo spacecraft also failed over the past eight months: Orbital Sciences Corporation's (now Orbital ATK) Orb-3 mission on October 28, 2014 and SpaceX's CRS-7 last Sunday (June 28).
Although there were four successful cargo flights over that 8-month span (two Russian, two SpaceX) and NASA said the crew has plenty of supplies through October, the failure of three of the four ISS cargo systems in such a short period of time was worrying.
The fourth system is Japan's HTV and the fifth in that series, HTV-5, is scheduled for launch next month.
The successful docking gives everyone a sigh of relief. One of the crew exclaimed that it was like "Christmas in July."
SpaceX is still trying to determine what went wrong 139 seconds into the launch of its seventh operational Commercial Resupply Services (CRS-7) mission to ISS on June 28. Orbital ATK found that a problem with the NK33/AJ26 engine of its Antares rocket caused the Orb-3 failure last October and is switching to a completely different engine (RD-181). While waiting for the re-engined Antares to enter service in the first quarter of 2016, it will launch its next Cygnus cargo craft on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket later this year.
After nearly 10 years in space and just 10 days away from its closest approach to Pluto, NASA's New Horizons spacecraft experienced an anomaly today (July 4). NASA has already established a board to determine what went wrong and how to fix it in such a short period of time.
New Horizons was launched on January 19, 2006 for its long journey to Pluto, once the ninth planet in the solar system and later redesignated as a "dwarf planet." Its change of status did not diminish interest in learning more about it and its five moons.
In the past several months, New Horizons has been able to obtain data "Better Than Hubble" as it closes in on Pluto. While the Hubble Space Telescope can see a lot from its perch in earth orbit, New Horizons now is able to see Pluto much more clearly. Closest approach will be on July 14.
That is if it is functioning properly, of course. This evening (Eastern Daylight Time) NASA announced the spacecraft "experienced an anomaly this afternoon" and went into safe mode. Mission control at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, MD lost contact at 1:54 pm EDT, but regained it after the spacecraft automatically switched to a backup computer as it is programmed to do. Contact was reestablished at 3:15 pm EDT and the spacecraft is transmitting data NASA hopes will enable mission scientists and engineers to determine what went wrong, fix it, and get the mission back to its original flight plan.
The spacecraft is 3 billion miles (4.9 billion kilometers) from Earth, which at the speed of light means that it takes 9 hours for a round-trip communications session. NASA says "full recovery is expected to take from one to several days" during which time the spacecraft will not be able to collect science data.
UPDATE, JULY 5, 2015: Progress M-28M successfully docked with the ISS this morning.
ORIGINAL STORY, JULY 3, 2015: Russia's Progress M-28M robotic cargo spacecraft lifted off on time at 12:55:48 am Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) this morning (July 3) and is successfully on its way to the International Space Station (ISS). The successful launch is good news, though with two cargo launch failures in the past 8 months, many are waiting for docking on Sunday before breathing a sign of relief.
The last Progress launch, Progress M-27M on April 28, failed due to a "design peculiarity" that affected third stage separation between the Soyuz rocket and the Progress spacecraft. The spacecraft reached orbit, but the wrong orbit, and was spinning. It reentered over the Pacific Ocean on May 7.
That was just over two months ago, so this is a quick return-to-flight. The Russians used a different version of the Soyuz rocket today, a Soyuz-U instead of a Soyuz 2.1a.
The Progress M-27M failure was the middle of three failed cargo flights to the ISS over 8 months. First was the October 28, 2014 failure of Orbital Sciences Corporation's (now Orbital ATK) Orb-3 launch (Antares/Cygnus), then Progress M-27M (Soyuz/Progress), and most recently the SpaceX CRS-7 failure (Falcon 9/Dragon) on Sunday, June 28.
There were four successful cargo missions in between -- Progress M-25M on October 29, 2014; SpaceX CRS-5 on January 10, 2015; Progress M-26M on February 17, 2015; and SpaceX CRS-6 on April 14 -- but the cadence of missions demonstrates the need for constant resupply of the crew. Another cargo mission, Japan's HTV-5, is scheduled for August 16 EDT.
Progress M-28M is taking about 3 tons of supplies to the crew, including fuel needed to periodically boost the ISS orbit, oxygen, water, food and other items. The spacecraft reached orbit and deployed its solar panels and navigation antenna about 9 minutes after liftoff. It is on a 34-orbit rendezvous trajectory with docking set for 3:13 am EDT on Sunday morning, July 5. NASA TV coverage of docking will begin at 2:30 am EDT. NASA refers to this as Progress 60 or 60P because it is the 60th Progress launched to the ISS. Progress has been in use since 1977, supporting the Soviet/Russian space stations Salyut 6, Salyut 7 and Mir before ISS.
Three men are aboard the ISS right now: NASA's Scott Kelly and Russia's Gennady Padalka and Mikhail Kornienko. Usually there are six people on board, but they are in the middle of a crew changeover, waiting for three colleagues to arrive later this month.
There are several Soyuz rocket variants and the one used for launching crews is the Soyuz FG. The next crew launch, Soyuz TMA-17M, is scheduled for 5:02 pm July 22 EDT, although NASA apparently wants more details about the Progress M-27M failure before signing off. NASA Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations, Bill Gerstenmaier, indicated on Sunday at a press conference following the SpaceX failure that NASA wants to "fully understand" the April 28 Progress incident and for the Flight Readiness Review to take place before committing to the TMA-17M launch date. The crew includes Kjell Lindgren from NASA, Kimiya Yui from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and Oleg Kononenko from Roscosmos.
The successful launch this morning is one step towards restoring confidence in the Russian systems. Russia is the only ISS partner capable of launching people to the space station. The United States has not been able to launch crews since it discontinued the space shuttle program in 2011. It hopes to have two commercial crew systems in place by 2017 -- the crew version of SpaceX's Dragon and Boeing's CST-100. How Sunday's failure of the cargo version of Dragon will affect SpaceX's commercial crew schedule will not be known until it determines and fixes the problem.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC), and Gen. William Shelton (Ret.) view the June 28 SpaceX launch failure very differently. In a McCain statement and a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Shelton, the two take opposite positions on what should be learned from the failure in terms of national security space launches and how long Russian RD-180 engines are needed by the U.S. military to have assured access to space.
The congressional push to end reliance on RD-180s began while Shelton was still on active duty and Commander of Air Force Space Command and he and McCain differed on these issues all along. At the last congressional hearing on the topic during Shelton's tenure, in July 2014, they were fully were on display. Apparently nothing has changed.
Ending reliance on RD-180s, which are used for the United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rocket to launch national security satellites, and allowing SpaceX to compete with ULA for those launches, have become inextricably entwined. Sunday's SpaceX launch failure adds fuel to the debate.
At the July 2014 hearing, Shelton agreed that it is time to build an American alternative to the RD-180, though he did not hide his admiration for the technical performance of the RD-180-powered Atlas V. Atlas V has a 100 percent success rate so far. He worried that it not be phased out before an American alternative is fully ready to replace it to ensure that ULA can be competitive with SpaceX later this decade. McCain, however, insinuated that Shelton was favoring ULA and was against SpaceX. He asserted that he did not like the Air Force's "block buy" contract with ULA for 36 rocket engine cores signed in 2013 and reminded everyone of the improprieties he uncovered in an aerial tanker lease deal with Boeing when "people went to jail and people got fired." ULA is a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin.
Shelton's successor as Air Force Space Command commander, Gen. John Hyten, has testified a number of times since then with essentially the same message -- yes, a new American-made engine should replace the RD-180, but make sure the new engine (and launch vehicle, if needed) is fully functional before ending use of the RD-180s. Hyten and higher level DOD officials, including Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James, are currently trying to get Congress to relax a requirement in last year's National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that RD-180 use end by 2019.
Meanwhile, SpaceX was certified at the end of May to compete with ULA for national security launches. At the time, it had 18 consecutive Falcon 9 launch successes. The question is how important Sunday's Falcon 9 failure is to SpaceX's ability to compete and, on a larger scale, what it might mean later this decade when Atlas V's no longer are in service because of the RD-180 ban if an alternative is not ready. Critics argue SpaceX will become a monopoly supplier with a less reliable rocket. ULA has been the monopoly provider of national security launches since it was formed in 2006. It launches Atlas V and Delta IV, but Delta IV is very expensive -- ULA puts the price at $400 million per launch -- so is not cost competitive with SpaceX, the argument goes. Thus SpaceX would win all the competitions in that time frame and become a monopoly itself..
In his Wall Street Journal op-ed on June 29, the day after the SpaceX failure, Shelton, now retired, made his points again. Agreeing that it is "smart policy" to build a U.S. alternative to the RD-180, he argued that "an abrupt ban is not smart." The House-passed FY2016 NDAA (H.R. 1735) provides flexibility as to how long the RD-180 may be used, as requested by the Air Force. Shelton wants Congress to adopt that position during the conference between the House and Senate on the final version of the FY2016 NDAA. The Senate version, written by McCain and his SASC colleagues, insists on 2019 as required by current law.
In a statement (reproduced below), McCain called Sunday's launch failure "a minor setback" that "will in no way impede the future success of SpaceX and its ability to support U.S. national security space missions." As for those who try to "leverage" the failure to argue for more RD-180s than the nine allowed in the Senate bill, this "mishap in no way diminishes the urgency of ridding ourselves" of RD-180s. He often states that paying Russia for the engines funds Russian President Vladimir Putin and his "cronies." He vowed that "With Russian troops still occupying Ukraine and killing its citizens, I will continue to oppose" the House language.
The House and Senate began appointing conferees for the NDAA before Congress recessed for the July 4 holiday. How long it will take for them to reach agreement on this and other issues is unknown. President Obama has threatened to veto the bill for a variety of reasons. His Statement of Administration Policy on the Senate bill (S. 1376) criticized several of the launch-related provisions including insistence on 2019 for ending use of RD-180s.
Sen. McCain's statement is not published on his website yet. The text was provided to SpacePolicyOnline.com by his press officer, Julie Tarallo, via email and reads as follows:
will be closely monitoring the outcome of the pending investigation
into this launch failure, which comes after seven successful Falcon 9
launches to the International Space Station.
Editor's Note: The statement refers to seven successful Falcon 9 flights to the ISS, a count that must include the C2+ demonstration flight in 2012 plus the six operational cargo missions prior to Sunday's attempt.
SpaceX continues to sort through reams of data to determine what happened on June 28 to its Falcon 9 rocket that was to deliver cargo to the International Space Station (ISS). A SpaceX spokesman said there is "no one theory yet that is consistent with the data" they have looked at so far. Meanwhile, Russia plans to launch its next cargo mission to the ISS, Progress M-28M, in less than 24 hours. The launch comes just over two months after the previous mission, Progress M-27M, failed.
SpaceX's Falcon 9, carrying a Dragon capsule full of supplies for the ISS, failed 139 seconds into flight on Sunday, June 28. It was the 19th Falcon 9 launch after 18 consecutive successes. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said shortly thereafter that "there were pressurization indications in the second stage" and the first stage is not suspect.
SpaceX spokesman John Taylor said via email late yesterday that the company's engineering teams are "reviewing every piece of flight data as we work through a thorough fault tree analysis in order to identify root cause." After that is completed, it will know more about rescheduled launch dates. Although some debris has been recovered from the ocean, the flight data is expected to hold the key to the cause.
Among the first launches affected by the failure is that of Jason-3 from Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA. The ocean altimetry satellite had been scheduled for launch on August 8 after several delays. NOAA and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) are the lead agencies for Jason-3, partnered with NASA and its French counterpart, CNES, who were responsible for Jason-1 and Jason-2, as well as the original satellite in the series, Topex-Poseidon. Jason-2, launched in 2008, continues to function nominally.
Sunday's launch was SpaceX's seventh robotic ISS cargo resupply mission under its Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) contract with NASA -- CRS-7 or SpX-7. About two tons of crew supplies, scientific experiments and equipment was lost, including the first of two International Docking Adapters needed for the crew version of Dragon and Boeing's CST-100 spacecraft to dock with the ISS. They were the winners of the final phase of the commercial crew program and NASA hopes that the systems will be operational by the end of 2017. The crew version of Dragon incorporates an abort system that can carry a crew to safety if the rocket fails, but it is not in the cargo version of Dragon used on Sunday. No one was aboard Sunday's launch.
This was the third failure in 8 months of systems that take cargo to the ISS: Orbital Sciences Corporation's (now Oribtal ATK) Antares rocket with a Cygnus spacecraft on October 28, 2014; Russia's Soyuz rocket with the Progress M-27M capsule on April 28; and now SpaceX's Falcon 9/Dragon combination.
Russia plans to launch the next Progress resupply mission tomorrow, July 3, at 12:55 am Eastern Daylight Time. Although NASA insists that the ISS crew has plenty of supplies to take them through to October, at least, a lot is riding on the success of the Progress M-28M flight (which NASA calls Progress 60 or 60P because it is the 60th Progress intended to supply the ISS). The Russians concluded the April failure was due to a "design peculiarity" related to frequency-dynamic characteristics between the third stage of the Soyuz 2.1a rocket and the Progress spacecraft.
One advantage of the ISS program is that it is an international partnership among the United States, Russia, Japan, Europe, and Canada. Europe has discontinued its ATV cargo spacecraft, but there still are four systems to take cargo to the crew: the U.S. Antares/Cygnus and Falcon 9/Dragon, Russia's Soyuz/Progress, and Japan's H2B/HTV. It is extremely unusual that three of the four systems should fail over such a short span of months.
Fortunately, should anything go awry with Progress M-28M, Japan's HTV cargo spacecraft is scheduled for launch next month.
Before leaving for the July 4 recess, the Senate Appropriations Committee approved the FY2016 Transportation-HUD (T-HUD) bill that includes funding for the FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST). It approved an increase over current funding, but less than the request. Funding for AST could become an issue as it oversees the investigation into Sunday's SpaceX launch failure on top of its current oversight of the October 2014 Antares failure. The Senate committee action took place before the SpaceX accident.
Funding for commercial space launch activities is located in three parts of the FAA's budget request this year: Operations; Research, Engineering & Development (RE&D); and Facilities and Equipment (F&E). The RE&D and F&E requests are related to safety and to integrating commercial space launch into the National Air Space (NAS).
The request for AST itself is in the Operations portion. The Administration is asking for $18.114 million, approximately $1.5 million more than its current funding of $16.605 million. FAA said in its budget justification that the money would pay for an additional 13 full time equivalent (FTE) staff positions needed due to the expected increase in requests for commercial launch licenses, permits, certifications and technical outreach.
The explanation did not specify that any of the positions were needed to support AST's oversight of the October 2014 failure of Orbital Sciences Corporation's (now Orbital ATK) Antares rocket, which may be completed by the time FY2016 begins, but AST now has a second investigation on its hands with the June 28 failure of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket. In each case, the companies are in charge of the investigation, but AST provides oversight. The companies must obtain licenses from AST for commercial space launches.
The Senate Appropriations Committee (S. Rept. 114-75) approved $17.425 million for AST, $820 million above current funding, but $689 million less than the request. The House-passed T-HUD bill (H.R. 2577) approved only a $250,000 increase over current spending, and that was added during floor debate, not by the House Appropriations Committee.
Commercial Spaceflight Federation President Eric Stallmer praised the Senate committee's action, singling out the chair and ranking member of the T-HUD subcommittee, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Jack Reed (D-Rhode Island) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Washington) for their support. He said that while the Senate committee's level does not fully fund the AST request, "it should ensure that AST can diligently process commercial space licenses and permits in a timely manner."
Bigelow Aerospace's Mike Gold, who chairs the FAA's Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC), said in an interview on June 29, the day after the SpaceX launch failure, that it would be a "tragedy" if commercial space is substantially delayed "for want of $1.5 million" to adequately fund AST. He added that AST was "already in a rough situation" before the SpaceX failure and hopes Congress adopts the Senate figure rather than the House's in the final appropriations bill. That still is not the full $1.5 million increase requested, but is an improvement.
The FAA also requested $3 million for "Commercial Space Transportation Safety" in the Research, Engineering & Development part of its budget. The money is for research related to the "safe and efficient integration of commercial space launches into the NAS, advanced safety assessments methods, advanced vehicle safety technologies, and safety factors for high utilization reusable vehicles." The House approved $1 million. The Senate committee approved $2 million. There was no similar line item in FY2015 budget although, interestingly, the House report has a notation that in FY2015 the funding was "buried in NextGen Ground Integration per FY14 congressional language."
Another $2 million was requested for "commercial space integration into the NAS" in the Air Traffic Management section of the F&E budget. The FAA budget documentation says it is needed to advance Commercial Space Integration into the NAS "through the mission analysis phase of the Acquisition Management System (AMS)." This is the first time such funding is being requested. It is one of four items comprising a $13.7 million request for Air Traffic Management in the F&E account. The House and Senate Appropriations Committee reports do not provide that level of detail, but the Senate committee approved the full $13.7 million for that line, while the House apparently cut it to $5.739 million.
SpaceX officials confirmed today that although a range safety destruct signal was sent to the Falcon 9 rocket yesterday, it was 70 seconds too late. The "mishap" had already occurred and the signal played no role in the loss of the vehicle.
Until this statement from SpaceX, it was not clear if the rocket malfunctioned, veered off course, and was destroyed by the Range Safety Officer, or if the rocket exploded on its own. Rockets are equipped with Flight Termination Systems that can be activated by sending an abort signal in order to protect public safety.
The Falcon 9 rocket exploded 139 seconds after launch yesterday (June 28). The launch, at 10:21 am ET from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, FL, part of the Air Force's Eastern Test Range, came after a flawless countdown with excellent weather conditions. It was sending a robotic Dragon spacecraft loaded with about two tons of supplies to the International Space Station (ISS). The mission was the seventh operational flight under SpaceX's Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) contract with NASA -- CRS-7 or SpX-7.
No one was aboard this flight. SpaceX is designing a crew version of Dragon for NASA's commercial crew program, but that is not in service yet. An emergency abort system is integrated into the crew version of Dragon. It would allow the crew capsule to detach from its rocket at any point on the trip up to orbit and carry the crew away to a safe landing.
Two more SpaceX ISS cargo flights were planned this year, in September and December. The schedule for those and all other launches of the Falcon 9 are on hold until this failure is understood.
While many are focused on the impact to the ISS program or SpaceX's efforts to compete for national security launches, SpaceX has many other customers who will be affected. Among them is NOAA. The launch of the Jason-3 ocean altimetry satellite had been scheduled for August 8 after several delays. A NOAA spokesman confirmed today that the failure has affected the Jason-3 launch and NOAA is working with its partners to determine the next steps. NOAA and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) are the lead agencies for Jason-3, partnered with NASA and its French counterpart, CNES, who were responsible for Jason-1 and Jason-2, as well as the original satellite in the series, Topex-Poseidon. The NOAA spokesman added that Jason-2, launched in 2008, continues to function nominally.
Financial analyst Chris Quilty of Raymond James & Associates said today that he is betting on a 4-6 month delay "which shouldn't be tremendously impactful" to the companies whose satellites are on SpaceX's manifest. Quilty is Senior Vice President, Equity Research, and closely follows the space business. He added that if the delay is longer than that, it "could have a material impact on 2016/2017 revenues."
At a press conference yesterday, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said she could not provide a timeframe for when Falcon 9 will return to flight, but confidently predicted it will be less than a year. She said then, and the company reiterated today, that it is in an extraordinary position to identify the problem and fix it because it owns the majority of the launch vehicle and its components, which streamlines the investigation. SpaceX founder and chief designer Elon Musk tweeted that they still do not know what happened even after several thousand engineering hours of review.
SpaceX vowed today that it would examine every available piece of data to identify the root cause, fix it, and return to flight.