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Elon Musk, founder, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of SpaceX, the entrepreneurial space transportation company, took on skeptics today, releasing details of how much the company has spent and how much it charges for its services. The information was provided in response to "a steady stream of misinformation and doubt expressed about SpaceX's actual launch costs and prices," according to his post on the SpaceX website.
He stated, for example, that the company has a firm fixed price contract with NASA for 12 cargo flights to the International Space Station (ISS) at an average price of $115 million each (or $133 million including inflation), including the Falcon 9 launch, Dragon spacecraft, all operations, maintenance, and overhead.
As for sending NASA crews to the ISS, Musk stated that his Dragon capsule can carry seven people "more than double the capacity of the Russian Soyuz, but at less than a third of the price per seat." An often quoted figure for what NASA is currently paying Russia per seat is $51 million. The Soyuz can launch three people. It is not clear if Musk's price per seat holds if there are fewer than seven passengers aboard.
Comparing the SpaceX and Russian prices is challenging since the services the two provide are different. NASA recently signed a new firm fixed price agreement with Russia covering 2014-2016, for example, for "crew transportation, rescue and related services" for $753 million. That covers "comprehensive Soyuz support, including all necessary training and preparation for launch, flight operations, landing and crew rescue of long-duration missions for 12 individual space station crew members." If the $753 million were only for taking crews back and forth, it would be $63 million per astronaut, but the "crew rescue" service is separate from crew transportation. NASA did not differentiate the prices. Crew rescue is essentially a lifeboat function Russia provides by having sufficient Soyuz spacecraft always docked to the International Space Station (ISS) so all members of the crew can escape in an emergency. SpaceX does not appear to offer a comparable service and it also is not clear if SpaceX's price includes training. Thus, an apples-to-apples comparison is difficult to make.
Musk provided other price details and said his company spent "less than $800 million" from when it was founded in 2002 through fiscal year 2010, including all the development costs for its two launch vehicles, Falcon 1 and Falcon 9, and the Dragon spacecraft. He also said the company has been profitable every year since 2007.
He wrapped his statement in a cloak of competition with China, stating that a Chinese official said last month that SpaceX currently has the best launch prices in the world and the Chinese official does not believe China can beat those prices. Musk then asserted that "China has the fastest growing economy in the world. But the American free enterprise system, which allows anyone with a better mouse-trap to compete, is what will ensure that the United States remains the world's greatest superpower of innovation."
SpaceX also recently announced that it would build a heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV). Calling it "Falcon Heavy," Musk proclaimed that it would be the largest launch vehicle in history other than NASA's Saturn V, which was used to send the Apollo capsules to the Moon. He expects the vehicle to be ready for launch in 2013 or 2014, and capable of lifting 117,000 pounds to orbit, twice the capability of the Delta IV, currently the most capable U.S. expendable launch vehicle. (The reusable space shuttle is more capable, but is being terminated.) Musk said that his Falcon Heavy would cost about $1,000 per pound to orbit, which he claims is one-third the cost of a Delta IV based on figures in the Air Force's FY2012 budget request.
The House Armed Services Committee (HASC) is busy working on the FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 1540), which includes the Department of Defense's (DOD's) annual request for national security space activities. The six subcommittees are marking up their portions of the bill this week, with full committee markup scheduled for next week.
Most national security space programs are under the purview of the Strategic Forces subcommittee. Yesterday, Strategic Forces subcommittee chairman Mike Turner (R-OH) and ranking member Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) released an overview of the action taken by their subcommittee. In total, the subcommittee recommended cutting $79.5 million from the $10.2 billion request for unclassified space activities (classified space activities are dealt with separately and, obviously, are not publicly discussed). The following list of changes is taken verbatim from the subcommittee's press release.
National Security Space
- Overall, a decrease of $79.5 million for National Security Space Programs from the $10.2 billion request. Specifically, the mark includes:
- Transfer $142.2 million from Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) for evolved AEHF military satellite communications (MILSATCOM) to a separate program element for Next-Generation MILSATCOM Technology Development.
- Decrease of $124.5 million (from $134.5 million) for launch support services for Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission;
- Increase of $20 million for Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) data exploitation;
- Increase of $25 million for Defense Reconnaissance Support Activities.
- AEHF Procurement-Authorizes the Secretary of the Air Force to enter into a fixed price contract to procure two Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) satellites and incrementally fund those two satellites over five years. Also requires the Secretary to submit a report on contract details, cost savings, and plans for reinvesting cost savings into capability improvements for future AEHF satellites. Does not authorize advanced appropriations, as OMB requested, but meets Air Force intent.
- Commercial Imaging Satellite Contracts-Repeals Sec. 127 from the Fiscal Year 2011 National Defense Authorization Act, which specified that any Department of Defense contract for commercial imaging satellite capability or capacity after December 31, 2010, shall require that the commercial imaging telescope have an aperture of not less than 1.5 meters.
- Joint Space Operations Center Management System-Limits Fiscal Year 2012 funds for Release One of the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) Management System (JMS) until the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (AT&L) and Secretary of the Air Force provide the JMS acquisition strategy.
- Harmful Interference with Global Positioning System (GPS)-Directs the Secretary of Defense to notify Congress if he determines a space-based or terrestrial-based commercial communications service will cause widespread harmful interference with DOD GPS receivers.
- Plan for Joint Space Operations Center-Directs the Commander, Air Force Space Command to develop a continuity of operations plan for the Joint Space Operations Center by March 2, 2012.
- Assessment on satellite operations efficiencies-Directs GAO to provide an assessment of the Department's efforts to modernize its satellite operations capabilities and identify commercial and other government best practices that could improve its satellite operations by February 6, 2012.
On April 25-26, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Air and Space Museum held an event commemorating 50 years of human spaceflight (HSF). Presenters led discussions on a variety of topics that considered new ways to look at past events, questioned some long-held assumptions, and offered glimpses of what to expect of the future of HSF.
Michael F. Robinson of the University of Hartford set the tone of the conference by offering an interesting suggestion: dispensing with the frontier analogy of the westward expansion in America to understand U.S. HSF efforts. Instead, he offered the exploration of the Arctic as a more useful parallel. In contrast to space, the expansion to the West was primarily motivated by economic and social development and was always conceived as "not just a place to explore, but a place to settle." Consequently, "we need to abandon this idea that extreme space will be a place where we can develop self-sustaining colonies" and embrace the idea of space as an "extreme, essentially uninhabitable" environment. The Arctic "gives us a sense of where space exploration could go," because its exploration, while relevant in terms of cultural impact, did not lead to the same kind of radical economic and political consequences enabled by the expansion to the West. Moreover, it suggests a way forward in terms of funding. Robinson believes that space exploration is driven by similar primarily spiritual and psychological payoffs with little public value and thus is unlikely to win substantial government support; therefore, if it is to be done, the money will have to come from private rather than public sources. He cited Robert Peary's 1909 North Pole expedition as an example. The federal government was stepping back from funding such exploration missions because of waning interest, he explained, and Peary was funded primarily by private sources.
During a later session, James Spiller of the State University of New York's College at Brockport, offered another explanation of why the frontier motif, so resonant in the 1960s, may no longer be relevant. Viewing space as the next frontier is not a "natural way" to frame the rationale for a HSF program, he said, and is salient only in the historical context of the shock of the 1957 Sputnik launch. Spiller suggested that elements implied in this theme such as an expected economic bonanza made it fitting for the anxieties of that time and turned HSF into a powerful tool to make meaningful a costly Cold War program. Yet these underlying elements faded away quickly, he said. Spiller described his beliefs about what he considers other implied elements of the motif, such as manifest destiny, racial supremacy and progress against nature and savage peoples that in his view were subsequently weakened by the civil rights movement of the 1960s, modern environmentalism, and the Vietnam War. The rise and fall of the frontier motif as a compelling argument for HSF can thus be traced back to its alignment with the mood of the nation at the time and is best described, not as an inevitable analogy, but as a "cyclical historical construct," he said.
Underlying this discussion was the larger issue of public engagement, which was repeatedly brought up during the conference. NASA's Amy Kaminski, for example, spoke about the agency's short-lived spaceflight participant program for the Space Shuttle. Kaminski recounted how, after Apollo, NASA saw the need to make the HSF program "relevant to people." By 1980, the agency had succeeded in fostering public expectation that one day anybody would be able to access space aboard the Shuttle and that it would be akin to flying in an airplane. NASA eventually created a program to choose non-astronauts who would fly aboard the Shuttle. In 1985, NASA Administrator James Beggs announced the selection of a teacher, Christa McAuliffe, and later confirmed that the second participant would be a journalist. All of this though, became "moot," said Kaminski, after the Challenger disaster in 1986. The accident "shattered" the image of technological optimism of the Shuttle, conveying instead the high risk involved. From a safety standpoint, subsequent administrations "questioned [the] appropriateness of flying citizens." Yet although the agency eliminated the program, Kaminski argued that the spaceflight participant program did succeed in bringing NASA and the public together, noting the level of excitement surrounding the Challenger flight prior to the tragedy. Kaminski said that the legacy of the Space Shuttle spaceflight participant program is a passion among educators for HSF, and noted that at least three astronauts with education backgrounds have been recruited by NASA as fully trained "educator astronauts" since then. (One of those is Barbara Morgan, who was the backup to McAuliffe.) Kaminski further noted that the selection of a teacher was a smart move because "it was her presence that fulfilled [the] aim of connecting the agency with the public." Since education involves everyone, NASA succeeded in making the Challenger flight relevant to all. The success was, of course, severely limited and the question remains: how many more citizens would have flown had Challenger succeeded?
Former NASA Chief Historian, Steve Dick, in turn, talked about exploration, discovery and science, and how they affect public perception of HSF initiatives. He began by explaining how those words, often used interchangeably, refer to different activities. Exploration, he said, is searching for something new, discovery is finding something new, and science is explaining something new. The point of understanding the difference is to realize that "when they occur together, the result is more than the sum of their parts." Looking at the Shuttle through this lens, he concluded that it was not "a robust exploration vehicle," and while science was performed onboard, neither scientists nor the public see it as important as Apollo. Dick explained that the Shuttle was "not conceived as a science project," and the Shuttle not being involved in discovery or exploration, also played a part. Thinking of the Shuttle as a "social experiment," Dick concluded that "science without exploration or discovery is not enough to sustain public support." Taking a lesson from the Shuttle, the United States "should take the path that best combines science, exploration and discovery," which he believes means going beyond low-Earth orbit once more.
A session on international initiatives offered a glimpse of the rationale and activities of other countries involved in HSF efforts. The Heritage Foundation's Dean Cheng offered a review of the history of China's HSF program which, like that of the Soviet Union and the United States in the 1960s, is mostly driven by prestige. Cheng noted that the Chinese HSF program experienced a "rocky start" due to constrained human, technological, and financial resources, but that it has contributed to China becoming a "space power of first rank." In terms of rationale, China views HSF as a "natural result" of the increasing complexity of space activities, Cheng said, adding pointedly that there is "no space race today for human spaceflight."
India's recent announcement of plans to pursue its own HSF program were also discussed. Ashok Maharaj of Georgia Tech suggested that India would benefit by dispensing with the idea of a race altogether. Maharaj described India's progress in space and its efforts in creating a "custom-made" program to suit the primary goal of socio-economic development. It was only at the end of 2003 that India began to enlarge this vision to allow for the possibility of its own HSF program to become part of the mix. Similar to China, India sees HSF as the next logical step in maturing the program, he said. India is also pursuing HSF to avoid being "left out," and to "represent the Third World" in this pursuit. With respect to the space race paradigm, "starting late has its advantages," argued Maharaj and went on to enumerate some of the lessons India has gleaned from the experience of other countries. More to the point, he said that China has already achieved key HSF milestones and would be too far ahead by the time India is able to launch an astronaut into orbit. Instead of rushing to catch up, he said, India should move ahead in HSF for its own benefit, striving to achieve HSF milestones without compromising its other space-related activities.
NASA is now targeting May 10 as the earliest launch date for space shuttle Endeavour. NASA calls it a "success oriented" date that is subject to change as technicians continue to assess what it will take to repair a malfunctioning Load Control Assembly in the orbiter's aft compartment.
NASA's Dawn spacecraft is closing in on its target, the asteroid Vesta, which NASA describes as a "protoplanet" that almost formed into a planet.
Dawn is designed to go into orbit around Vesta on July 18. NASA announced today that the spacecraft is now using cameras instead of radio signals for navigation as it requires more precise measurements to achieve orbit. After a year in orbit at Vesta, the spacecraft is expected to travel to another large body, Ceres. It should arrive there in 2015.
Vesta and Ceres are the largest bodies in the asteroid belt, which lies between Mars and Jupiter. Ceres actually is currently designated a "dwarf planet" rather than an asteroid. Vesta is approximately 530 kilometers wide, big for an asteroid, but not big enough to be a dwarf planet like Ceres, which is about 950 kilometers in diameter (though there is debate about its size). The dwarf planet designation was created by the International Astronomical Union (IAU) in 2006 when Pluto was "demoted" from being a planet. The IAU now classifies Ceres, Pluto, Eris, Makemake and Haumea as dwarf planets and expects more to join the list as new discoveries are made and more is learned about existing known objects.
Scientists want to study asteroids and their dwarf planet cousins because they provide clues about the earliest days of solar system formation and because asteroids have collided with Earth in the past and are expected to do so in the future. The more that is known about the various types of asteroids, the better equipped scientists will be in determining how to deflect or destroy one before it wreaks destruction on our planet.
The following events may be of interest in the week ahead. For more information, check our calendar on the right menu or click the links below. The House and Senate are both in session this week. Times, dates and witnesses for congressional hearings are subject to change; check the relevant committee's website for up to date information.
All week, May 2-6
Tuesday, May 3
- NASA Advisory Council (NAC) Space Operations Committee, Doubletree Hotel, Cocoa Beach, FL, 8:00 am - 2:00 pm EDT
- NAC Audit, Finance and Analysis Committee, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, 9:00 am - 11:45 am EDT
- Senate Armed Services subcommittee hearing on health of industrial base and S&T elements, SD-562 Dirksen Senate Office Building, 2:30 pm EDT
Wednesday, May 4
Wednesday-Thursday, May 4-5
- House Armed Services subcommittee markups of FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 1540), see the committee's website for details
- May 4, subcommittees on military personnel, emerging threats and capabilities, strategic forces, and tactical air and land forces
- May 5, subcommittees on seapower and projection forces, and on readiness
Thursday, May 5
Thursday-Friday, May 6-7
- NASA Advisory Council, Ohio Aerospace Institute, Cleveland, OH
- Thursday, 8:00 am - 5:00 pm EDT
- Friday, 8:00 am - 12:00 pm EDT
Friday, May 6
Space Shuttle Endeavour (STS-134) will not launch before next Sunday, May 8, and perhaps later, according to NASA.
The launch was scrubbed on Friday because of a problem with one of the three Auxiiary Power Units (APUs). The APUs provide hydraulic power to steer the shuttle during launch and reentry. NASA discovered that a heater in APU-1 that prevents its fuel from freezing while in space failed because of a bad power circuit in a switchbox located in the orbiter's aft compartment. NASA said today that it is developing a schedule to remove and replace the swtichbox and retest the unit. An official launch date will not be announced for a few days. May 8 is the earliest that it can launch. The crew has returned to Houston.
UPDATE: NASA now says Monday is the earliest it can launch, a 72 hour delay.
NASA scrubbed the STS-134 (Endeavour) launch scheduled for this afternoon because of a problem with Auxiliary Power Unit 1 heaters. The agency said it will be at least 48 hours before they can try again. Visit NASA's shuttle website for more information.
The air of excitement surrounding the final launch of Endeavour (STS-134), scheduled for 3:47 pm EDT this afternoon, is at almost fever pitch with two VIPs planning to be in attendance. President Obama will fly to Kennedy Space Center (KSC) after he visits tornado-ravaged Alabama, and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), wife of Endeavour commander Mark Kelly, has flown to KSC from her rehabilitation hospital in Houston.
Video from a distance of Giffords climbing the stairs of a NASA aircraft to fly to Florida was widely shown Wednesday and yesterday. It was the first time the public had any view at all of the Congresswoman since she was shot in the head on January 8 during an assassination attempt.
Whether it is the President's attendance or Rep. Giffords's, or both, there is much more media attention to this launch than usual. Even Politico is covering it! Hopefully it will launch as scheduled; the weather forecast is 70 percent go.
If nothing else, the public finally seems to be getting the message that this is the next to last shuttle flight.
NASA will hold a media teleconference with the winners of the Commercial Crew Development round 2 (CCDev2) competition tomorrow, April 28, at 11:00 am EDT at Kennedy Space Center, FL. The event will be telecast live on NASA TV.
The four companies that won CCDev2 contracts and that will be represented at the briefing are: Blue Origin, Sierra Nevada, SpaceX, and The Boeing Company. For more details, see NASA's press release.
Events of Interest
- 7th Annual Space Law Conference, November 3, 2014, National Press Club, Washington, DC, 12:00-3:00 pm ET
- NRC Cmte on Astronomy and Astrophysics, November 3-4, 2014, Beckman Center, Irvine, CA (Some sessions are closed. Open sessions will be webcast. See agenda.)
- ELECTION DAY, November 4, 2014 DON'T FORGET TO VOTE
- NRC Space Studies Board, November 5-6, 2014, Beckman Center, Irvine, CA (Some sessions are closed.)
- Farming and Space Exploration--Overlapping Technology Policies, November 6, 2014, American University, Washington, DC, 10:00-11:00 am ET (breakfast reception begins at 9:00 am ET)
- NASA Bfg on Orion EFT-1 Mission, November 6, 2014, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 11:00 am ET (watch on NASA TV)
- WSBR Luncheon Featuring Sierra Nevada's Mark Sirangelo, November 6, 2014, University Club, Washington, DC, 11:30 am - 1:30 pm ET
- Citizen Forum on Asteroid Initiative (1 of 2), November 8, 2014, Phoenix, AZ, 9:00 am - 5:00 pm local time (2nd forum is Nov. 15 in Boston)
- ESA's Philae lander (part of Rosetta mission) Lands on Comet 67P, November 12, 2014, media events in France and Germany, confirmation of landing expected about 11:00 am Eastern Standard Time
- Congress returns, November 12, 2014
Full calendar of future events (with filters)-click here »
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